COMMENT ⊗   VALID 00002 PAGES
C REC  PAGE   DESCRIPTION
C00001 00001
C00002 00002	.require "let.pub[let,jmc]" source
C00009 ENDMK
C⊗;
.require "let.pub[let,jmc]" source
∂AIL %2Japan Times%1↓Tokyo↓JAPAN∞

To the Editor:

	As an American who has observed Japanese military, political,
and intellectual dependence on the United States, I feel an obligation
to warn you that you cannot count on the United States any longer
in any of these areas.  You cannot even count on the United States
to act in its own national interest.

	This is because irrational intellectual ideas dominate American
politicians, lawyers and bureaucrats under forty in age.
This group is coming into power all over the country.  Eventually these
ideas will be overcome by unpleasant experience, but they can lead to
disaster for Japan if it doesn't resolutely become independent of
the United States before their consequences become obvious within
the United States.

	The ideas I refer to are environmental extremism, anti-technology,
a guilt complex about the success of the American and other capitalist
industrial economies, a belief that business is the enemy of the people,
unilateral disarmament, and romantic support of communist and third world
dictatorships.

	One cannot predict that these ideas will achieve complete
dominance - there are counter trends that may win, but any country that
bets its life that they won't dominate is living in a fool's paradise.

	One danger to Japan lies in the area of nuclear energy.
The Carter Administration wants the world to give up breeder reactors
and recycling plutonium.  After some American pressure on Japan, and
some negotiations, an apparent compromise has been reached.  Japan
can have no assurance that the United States will live up to its
agreements.  In particular, the promise that the United States will
be a reliable supplier of uranium to countries that accept the Carter
policy cannot be relied upon.  In the first place, environmentalist
ideology recognizes no agreements as binding on them.  In particular,
if Governor Brown of California succeeds Carter as President, he
will be as ruthless with Japan as he has been in violating understandings
concerning the development of nuclear energy in California.  Even
Carter himself cannot be trusted not to reinterpret existing agreements
in the light of "changed circumstances".  For example, the Administration
debate on whether to "normalize" relations with China gives absolutely
no weight to the treaty with the Taiwan government.
Your safety requires that you develop a credible alternate supply
of uranium, e.g. from other countries or from sea water, including
the ability to enrich uranium and reprocess cores and store nuclear
waste.

	The failure to develop nuclear energy will damage the United
States and eventually be reversed, but because the United States
has great resources of coal and oil, Japan can suffer greatly before
the U.S. suffers enough to change.

	Another area is defense.  There is a strong probability that
the United States will abandon South Korea and Taiwan, and that both
of the countries will have to try to develop a nuclear deterrent as their
best hope of survival.  Considering the uncertainty
of American policy, they may consider it prudent
to have already started.  The nature of American politics ensures that
if this abandonment occurs, it will be sudden, and the countries
affected will have been encouraged by many Americans entirely sincerely
to believe that it can't happen.  There is even a possibility that
the United States will weaken itself to where the Russians or the
Chinese will be able to threaten Japan into becoming an ally against
the other.

	Japan might have to develop its own nuclear deterrent in a
great hurry.  A better alternative for Japan might be a more aggressive
diplomacy towards America.  You must tell us, "If you want to rely
on your nuclear umbrella, then prove to us that you have the naval
and air power to make it effective.  Otherwise, we will have to
provide for our own defense".

	I must confess that this letter is motivated by more than
good will towards Japan.  The sooner the American Congress is persuaded
that Japan and other countries will not follow disastrous American
policies, the sooner they will reverse these policies.
Just remember the disaster will affect you before it affects us.

.sgn